Splendide Mendax Redux: Is Pinot Noir Different?
Julian M. Alston
Sarah C. Whitnall
In their article “Splendide Mendax: False Label Claims about High and Rising Alcohol Content of Wine,” Alston et al. (2015) reported evidence of systematic discrepancies between the “stated” alcohol content of wine as reported by the producer, on the label, and the “actual” alcohol content as measured by the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, Canada (LCBO), which tests a sample of every wine imported into that province. (Alston et al. 2016 provide a succinct summary version.) Drawing on their analysis of 91,432 observations of individual wines tested by the LCBO, Alston et al. (2015) reported two main findings. First, over the vintage years 1992–2009, the alcohol content of the wines trended up, with an overall average increase of about 0.5 percentage points on a base of 12–13% alcohol by volume (ABV). Second, systematic patterns of differences were observed between the actual alcohol content of wines and the alcohol content reported on the label, with labels tending to understate the alcohol content for higher-alcohol wines and, conversely, to overstate the alcohol content for lower-alcohol wines—for the most part within the wide tolerances allowed by wine labeling laws that vary among countries.
The authors concluded that their findings support the idea that winemakers may be tweaking alcohol content on the label to reflect their perceptions of market norms and expectations for the alcohol percentage for a given type of wine (defined by variety, place of origin, and so on). Given the rise in wine alcohol over the study period and the negative press and reviews for high-alcohol wines, it is not too surprising to see winemakers tending to err in the direction of understating the alcohol content of some types of wines, in ways that the law allows. In the decade that has elapsed since that study was undertaken, we have seen—at least in informal impressions—some further drifting in markets and in the wine press away from higher-alcohol wines. It is timely, therefore, to revisit the questions raised by Alston et al. (2015) and ask what has happened to the alcohol content of wine and the propensity of wine producers to under- or over-state the alcohol content to enhance the marketability of their products, and to extend the analysis to contemplate some further, new questions.
In this study we extend the work by Alston et al. (2015) in three ways. First, we extend the database, which ends in 2009, to include data for at least five more vintages (data we have in hand—and we hope 10 or more vintages, if we can obtain additional data) and with some different details. Second, we undertake a slightly more nuanced statistical analysis that takes explicitly into account the country-specific details of labeling laws, in particular the EU requirement to report alcohol percentage rounded to the nearest 0.5% ABV. Third, we consider variety-specific effects and, specifically, ask if the findings are systematically different between Pinot Noir (or regions where Pinot Noir predominates) and other varieties (or regions where other varieties predominate) in terms of both the trend in alcohol content of wine and in the propensity for over- or understating the alcohol content.
Julian Alston is an agricultural economist known for his work on the economics of agricultural and food policy. Recent projects have emphasized science & technology policy and the economics of agricultural innovation; food & nutrition policy, and the global challenges of poverty, malnutrition, and obesity; and the economics of beer & wine. Until July 2022 Alston served as a distinguished professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis. As an emeritus member of the faculty, he continues to serve as the honorary director of Center for Wine Economics at the Robert Mondavi Institute at UC Davis and to work on research projects with graduate students. Previously, he was the Chief Economist in the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in Victoria, Australia. He has a PhD in Economics from North Carolina State University. Among numerous other honors and distinctions, Professor Alston is a Fellow of the American Association of Wine Economists and a Foreign Correspondent of the Italian Academy of Vine and Wine.
Sarah Whitnall (née Smith) completed her PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis in July 2023 and is currently employed as a Postdoctoral Scholar at UC Davis and as a Visiting Researcher at CSIRO in Canberra, Australia. Sarah earned her Bachelor’s Degree in Resource Economics from the University of Sydney, and spent several years as a researcher with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. Her research looks at the effects of extreme weather and climate change on agricultural production, and how producers make decisions and adapt to these challenges. Sarah has received several awards for her research, including the University Medal—the most prestigious award for undergraduates—from the University of Sydney and an honorable mention from the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its annual award for outstanding doctoral dissertation.